Massive Size In Treasuries At Settlement

Someone pointed out to me this unheard of action on the close.  Oddly size did NOT move the market.  40000 contracts trade in the Tnote in one minute across a few ticks only during settlement at the 9pm mark local time, dwarfing the entire days action.  Over these few minutes its the same volume as after the recent FOMC where it moved a full point.  Massive size across all markets. There is a 100000 offer in the 2 year.. crazy.  This was the last settlement before debt deadline too so maybe somethings up with that. Its a bit jumpy as is replay data.

EDIT: I asked some prop traders what the deal is here - This is end of month volume occurring at the close. Prop traders look for this to occur, which is all the funds closing out their positions for the sake of accounting, then immediately reopening the position.  As funds are doing this on the long and short side it occurs in a very tight range, on massive volume.  Some traders look for this end of month trading to get out of balance and trade the breakout.  They look for the same thing at end of quarter and annually, with more extreme volume on these occasions.  

Scalping The Bund Action

The first minute is fast forwarding for overview of the action.  

From 1 minute on watch the games start to play out with a big order chasing the Bund up which turns out to be real and a bunch of size trades up in the area of the Open.

Around minute 3  you can see the orders thicken up in the Bobl when its over as obvious as can be. 

Wish I was not poking about and hit in.

Bids Pumping Bund / Bobl / Schatz

Select full screen and 1080HD or Original Size.

I was reviewing some trades from just before I stepped aside for the holidays and thought this was a great example to study in the Bund / Bobl / Schatz.  What was probably a level, was forming where a lot of traders were looking for a break up The bids looked solid but were actually trying to push orders into the offers. Once it starts falling (around the 4 minute mark) bids pumping all the way down trying to hold it up, or more likely lure traders into hitting into what they already have on the offer.  I fell for it, taking just 3 ticks when the bids pumped, but reviewing this will help me hold on next time in this scenario

Aug 08 - Trade 5 Good Reading OK Execution in Bund

Select 1080 HD or Original.  A nice trade to get me back to even for the day.

Aug 08 - Trade 4 Lessons Relearned in Bund

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Sort of trading related

Sure we want to get over the stepping stone and actually make bucketloads of money scalping the orderflow.  Perhaps there is better motivation then just making above and beyond hundreds of thousands.   80000hours.org/  actually recommends some people chose financials as a career if they want to do something meaningful with their lives.

Just a thought to fill in the void of posts lately.  More order flow vids to come soon.

April 24 - Comeback

To put this day in perspective, I was down 8 ticks. Had also scratched 3 trades that within moments would have been worth more than 20 ticks total.  In essence had been trading like a turnip, after having yesterday off even. Spirits were low, I was going to call it a day then things turned around. Volume really is my friend when reading the order flow. It makes it a lot easier to get a feel for things as there is more 'flow' less 'chop'.

The stops 6 ticks away are catastrophe stops incase I get disconnected or whatever.  I use ATM strategies in Ninja to place these.  Jigsaw cancels all trades when I close the position.

00:45   -  Felt the momentum in my bones.. and scratched immediately. Why oh why? Looks like I was chasing but volume was really building and I instinctively wanted to get a chance before it went to lows. As soon as I entered I panicked that I had just chased the market like a fool and should have known better so exited.

01:25   -  Offers were sticking at the step at '85 with momentum down still. Didn't go in the window I gave it so settled for 2 ticks.

03:10   -  Since didn't in previous trade and range was massively extended for the time trading so far in this Bund session I felt we might get a pop up so hit into the step at '85. Would know I was wrong if it went 3 ticks against me.

05:45   -  Got another opportunity at same setup before. Ideally would have bought '83 but 2nd time shouldn't stick around long if its going to go so I jumped on it.

Took one more trade later on and settled for 1 tick ... instead of about 8.. dam.

Music is added to make it slightly more exciting. Comment if you want me to stop doing that.